Talking to a Wall

Mohammad Ayub Khan

22nd December 2005

Publishing Date: Friday, December 30 2005

Image Credits: (1) Geo Mianwali (2) Olivier Matthys

Out of total water available covering the face of our planet, less than 3% forms the sweet water resources, which is used both for drinking as well as for irrigation of crops. Large portion i.e. 73% of this meager proportion of total sweat water is required for irrigation and demand for more and more is on the rise due to the population explosion around the word. Owing to this fear of fast depleting water resources against the ever increasing demand, it is feared that the third global war would be fought to take control of the sweat water resources.  "We have had the oil wars. That's happened in our life times. Water wars are possible," said Professor William Mitsch at a 2004 conference on water held in Stockholm, Sweden.

Picking up some statements of leading politicians and relevant events from various parts of our world, the fear expressed above proved beyond any shred of doubt,  that their exists the possibility of such eventuality of a global water war in the near future. Threatening vaguely the Ethiopian Government in 1979, the president of Egypt Anwar Sadat said "The only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water" while King Hussein of Jordan imitated more or less the same tone to express his anguish the same year against Israel, which took water from Jordan River without his consent. In 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon and took control of the Hasbani, Litani and Wazzani rivers, which flow into the Jordan. River Ghalil is another source of wrangling between Lebanon and Jordan in the same region.

India and Nepal are on the logger head since the past 10 years over the use of water and building a dame by the Nepal government. India even stopped all sort of commercial goods transportation to and from for the Nepali government. Bangladesh too is in dispute with Indian Government, accusing for diverting the Ganges and Brahamaputra rivers for irrigation purpose, depriving Bangladesh as a lower riparian of these two rivers. Turkey under the Grand Anatolian Water Project is building 6 dames over the river Tigris and Euphrates, which are the sole source to keep running the Syrian and Iraqi economies and human needs. Mekong River in the Far-East part of this world originates from Tibet in China, passes through Myanmar and enters Thailand, before going to Laos and ending in Vietnam.  It is feared that if the Chinese government did not take into account the worries of these mentioned countries and went ahead with her planning for building water reservoirs on Mekong, there would be a severe shortage of food, and can result in an all out war amongst these countries. In our part of the world the long dawn dispute of Kashmir in other words manifests the water war analogy, which has been intensified during the mid 80 after the Indian government went for building various water reservoirs and barrages (projects of Kashanganga, Baglihar and vlolar barrage) over the rivers entering Pakistan.

Historical Perspective

Disagreement about water sharing and ownership rights remained bone of contention between Punjab and Sindh, dating back to the constructing irrigation infrastructure on Indus River by the Punjab Government in 1870. By then the British government was in no mode to hurt the Sindhi feudal agricultural interests and kept a delicate balance between the two, however with the departure of their government from subcontinent in 1947, the power struggle intensified in the newly formed state of Pakistan between various forces. Most of these new rulers lacked vision for the future of the state and required experience to have defined long terms policies. Owing to this lack of qualities in March 1948, despite the big names of Sardar Shaukat Hayat, Mumtaz Daulatana and Mamdot in the Arbitrary Committee formed by the British Government to justly divide the water resources between the newly created provinces of East and West Punjab, no tangible arrangement was secured either for use or ownership of waters from the Indian Government. Again in May 1948 the same year another delegation led by Ghulam Muhammad (later Governor General of Pakistan) with Daulatana and Shaukat Hayat as members visited New Delhi to sort out this issue, but contrary to their aims and objective they accepted a law under which Indian government was given sovereignty rights over the three eastern rivers, and this agreement of these short sighted Pakistani representatives later on became basis of the 1960.

Government of Pakistan approached the World Bank for financing few (water) projects located at Mangla, Darband, Kalabagh and Turbela; however the Bank was not ready to provide any financial assistance unless the issue of water sharing was resolved with the Indian Government.  After lengthy discussions and bickering, both the governments (Pakistan and India) agreed to share the waters of these six rivers according to the new formula or Indus Basin Treaty of 1960. Pakistan willingly gave up the ownership of 3 eastern rivers (Ravi, Bias and Sutlej) in lieu of 3 western rivers namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab) losing its legal share of 33MAF (Million Acre Feet)of waters for ever. According to the said Treaty Pakistan was entitled to 142 MAF (Indus 93, Jehlum 23 and Chenab 26), however the loss of 3 rivers were compensated by the World Bank through financing the proposed water projects (Mangla storage 5.3MAF in 1967 and Turbela 9.2 in 1975).

After going through many ups and downs and gaining enough maturity at this point of time, it has now been suggested that the Indian and Pakistani governments should have agreed to the mutual ownership of all the water resources they had for their use rather than for out rightly handing over of ownership to eastern and western rivers to the respective countries. Post partition upheavals, genocide of thousands of refugees from both sides and the tense situation probably did not allow the sane voices to have prevailed by then and could have managed many things, to we can very easily handle today.

From 1960s to 1970s or post Indus Basin Treaty era the Punjab's Agricultural sector saw a reasonably higher productivity. To maintain this plenteous agricultural output the agriculturists in that province went crazy in search of grabbing more and water resources in order to bring in more and more land under irrigation, resultantly harming the interests of other stack holders, particularly Sindh as a lower riparian of Indus River System (IRS).. Despite the availability of underground water in Punjab, which their agriculturists exploited to the optimum, the Sindh lacked this very natural bonanza.

The latest Water Accord (commonly known as Water Apportionment Accord) was signed by Chief Ministers of all four provinces of Pakistan on 16th March 1991 and ratified by the Council of Common Interests (CCI) on 21st March, 1991. This accord is based on both, the existing and future water needs of the four provinces. With the allocation of 2.24 MAF approved by the ECNEC for Left Bank Outfall Drainage (LBOD) and 0.87 MAF allowed by the President of Pakistan for Karachi city consumption, the present sanctioned annual allocation of provinces as per 1991 Accord is as follows: Punjab 55.94 MAF, Sindh 48.76 MAF, NWFP 8.78 MAF and Balochistan 3.87 MAF (between the four provinces, in the ratio of Punjab 37 percent, Sindh 37 percent, NWFP 14 percent and Balochistan 12 percent). This new distribution gives proportionally more water to NWFP and Balochistan but readers should be aware of the fact that NWFP can not utilize more than 3% of its agreed share because of its geographic elevation compare to the Indus flow all the way from Turbela to Taunsa. Similar is the situation with Balochistan which get water through one small size canal namely Pat Feeder. Water apportionment of 1991 certainly gives more water to these two province of NWFP and Balochistan but due its inability to utilize the extended share because of geographic bottlenecks, Punjab is the ultimate beneficiary to draw this unused portion of total 26% water. Sindh can not raise voice as they would be given its due share of 37% under the agreed formual, the rest is none of their business.

Legal perspective

Agreements are agreed and signed to give the undertakings fledged by the participating parties a constitutional sanctity. Individuals like our president, notwithstanding his sincerity and thoughtfulness to the cause of future water requirements of our country and who wanted to pacify the Sindh intelligentsia if they need a constitutional amendment or any such guaranty in the state legal statute book. The accord reached between the Indian and Pakistani government in 1960 for the ownership of rivers shared by the both the countries, is a good example to studied closely. Contrary to the letter and spirit of the said agreement the Indians is using every possible mean to give a tough time to the Pakistani partner since long. 

Sindhis always remained suspicious about KBD design and the announcement of not taking out left bank canal. Nothing could convince them so far that if water would be taken out from this dame through any left bank canal for irrigation in Punjab. But the initiation of Thal Canal close to this storage site (about 10km down stream) it is always feared that the same could be converted to a full fledged irrigation canal for bringing in the waste tracts of Khwashab, Mianwali and Bakkar districts, primarily designed to take the floor water only during monsoon season.  No legal grantees or protection can give the required level of assurance to the Sindhis even if the required amendments are inserted in the constitution. Unfortunately in this country law remained the first victim of every ruler who came to power through democratic process or other wise, and played around with this piece of legislation brutally. Sindhis, if find it difficult to trust any one, no one should take as surprise. 

As mentioned above the duplicity of Indian government clearly indicates that in the absence of a strong and viable mediator and guarantor no such legal arrangement would worth enough. In our case World Bank took over the responsibility to be the sole arbiter under the Indus Basin Treaty of 1960 but today the Bank miserably failed to deliver the required level of protection to the interests of Pakistan, direly threaten by the Indian government intransigencies in the shape of its water project over the rivers she gave up in favour of Pakistan. Today Pakistan is finding it hard to stop the Indian government from constructing various water projects in held Kashmir.

Fortunately, the 1973 Constitution did provide for the creation of such federal cooperative institutions, such as Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Council of Common Interests (CCI), National Finance Commission (NFC) and National Economic Council.. Ironically these institutional are never allowed to take roots, play its full role and create an atmosphere of trust amongst the federating units. There is already a deep mistrust created between Sindh and Punjab on the two irrigation links. Chashma-Jehlum link (21,000 cusecs) and Taunsa-Panjnad link (12000 cusecs) have been kept open for the last several years without prior consent and permission of the Sindh provincial government in flagrant violation of the inter-provincial agreement. Punjab has been violating 1991 accord openly and any voice form Sindh is suppressed ruthlessly. One of the reason Sindh's Governor Daudpoto and Irrigation Minister ANG Abbassi had to quit was their open disapproval of Punjab's attitude and Center's silence toward this issue.

According to the Dawn (English Daily from Karachi 22nd December 2005) the Punjab government is willing to give constitutional guarantees (to Sindh as far as KBD was concerned), which clearly violates the basic spirit of being one country as the constitutional protection can only be provided by the Federal Government and not by a federating unit to another federating unit within the same country. One however can appreciate the announcement of giving up the royalty rights over the KBD power generation by the Punjab government, but how long they would resist the easy coming money in the form of royalty.

One important factor which we have missed so far or not giving enough attention is the value of resolutions passed by the three Federating Units of Pakistan against the Kalabagh Dame. Unanimously opposing the construction of this dame provincial assemblies of Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP shown their decision (first in 1985 Arbab Jehangir 2nd in Aftab Sherpao and 3rd during Mir Afzal Khan Chief Miinister-ship) that they are opposed to this project irrespective of their political affiliations. National Assembly and the Senate have so far did not bother to take up the issue and hold the voting either to scarp the project or give a green signal to the government for construction. If the National Assembly passes the project what would be the constitutional position of all those resolution passed in the past by these provincial assemblies. Do they lack any legal obligation over the government in the Federal Capital, if so what is the use of such assemblies in the first place.

Some elements within the country also raise the issue of presidential involvement in a project, most controversial in the history of Pakistan. Should the president take such a deep interest in a project which has created so much bad blood and disunity amongst the Federating Units. If the president is so interested in the development of Pakistan, did he care about any other project proposed by any member of these dissenting provinces of the country, these elements are reported saying. Why a president, who is suppose to be a symbol of impartiality and unity according to the law of the land goes to the extent of publicly making himself a guarantor and can he do it if so under which section of the law.

On March 2, 2005 President General Pervez Musharraf addressed a rally in Nowshera. While speaking to the public, he strongly advocated the construction of the Kalabagh Dam. In fact, this was presumably why he was there in Nowshera in the first place. The main thrust of President Musharraf speech was to enlighten the audiences on the merits of KBD as opposed to the Basha Dam and which most people consider to be a better compromised solution to the ongoing problem of selling KBD idea to the people of NWFP. President Musharraf also assured the people that while he wants the KBD, the ultimate decision to construct the dam would be taken by the people, how it was not told.

Two years ago, he did the same thing in Sindh when he took the issue of the Greater Thal Canal project to the people and tried to convince them that the GTC was not harmful for Sindh. At least once, in 2002, he also chose to address the nation on national television and argued vehemently in favour of these projects. Planning and development of Project mostly come under the Prime Minister jurisdiction as a chief Executive of the Government, who in this situation is totally made irrelevant.

Sindh, as  lower riparian of Indus River System, is always threatened by Punjab whenever there is a shortfall of irrigation water in the dames. Particularly for Kharif season these figure of water release and storage are always disputed. Despite all the available constitutional forums such as Council of Common Interests, Indus River System Authority etc no legal course is ever followed to remove the grievances of Sindh and neither they were ensured about their due water share.

Royalty on power generation was acknowledge in the 1973 constitution, unfortunately  so far this proved to be pie in the sky for the NWFP government. It was plainly mentioned in the constitution to pay the royalty every year where the power house is located and making this as a valid legal, base, the NWFP government demanded to get that but under various (flimsy) excuses, put forwarded by the Central Government to delay this payment. Accumulated financial obligation payable by the WAPDA stands somewhere 300 billion rupees but this white elephant miserably failed even to pay a tiny portion. In such a situation what is the use of legal protection for a province or region's right for royalty on its mineral resources.

Economic Perspective

Experts are required to prioritize their projects according to the level of urgency concerning certain area of interest related to sustainable economical development and weigh their proposals according to the rule of investing the sacred resources comparing the net returns needed for the development of country in question. Kalabagh in this situation does not hold an exceptional place to be taken as the most urgently required project for the development of this country. Fortunately we have few other water projects in hand and compare it against the KBD, in order to asses both the investment level and the immediate return in terms of generating power and saving the surplus water, Punjab is sure and Sindhis doubt we have it. Just to make summarily an opinion the following table is given to understand the major characteristics of these project  we have at our hand.

Description	Basha	Katraza[1]	Kalabagh
Storage Capacity (MAF)	7.34	35.00	6.1
Hyde Power production	4,500mw	15,000mw	2,400mw
Time for completion	2014	2019	2012
Total Cost in US$	7.00 billion	No known	9.00 billion
Displacement of population	nominal	Nominal	Around 300,000
Environmental affects	nominal	Nominal	Water logging etc
Political acceptance	Yes	Yes	Controversial
seismic fault-line	Near fault line	Near Fault Line	Near Fault Line
Stop silting flow to Turbela	Yes	Yes	No

Kalabagh Dame is planned to take out a left Bank canal (which Punjab denies) to irrigate new areas in the districts of Mianwali, Bakkar and Khwashab, but on the other hand it would destroy (districts of Charsadda, Nowshera, Peshawar, Swabi and Mardan, the food basket of NWFP) more than what it would irrigate in Punjab.

In this respect, two important pointers appear in the topographic view of the proposed site of KBD i.e., the salt range (Bahadur Khel in Karak) and the location of the five oil fields (Kohat and Karak) near the proposed dam site which also be threaten by the rising underground water level.

Billions of rupees have been spent during the last 20 or so years under Swabi and Mardan SCARP to take down the water level in these areas which occurred because of Tarbella reservoir in close vicinity, the new dame of Kalabagh would totally kill this project for ever.  Hundred of miles GT Road and railway line would go down the water from Attock to Peshawar and Mardan, Charsadda towards the north. Other than destroy the whole city of Nowshehra and Jehangira a number of factories in these areas engaged in producing ceramics, glasses and other commercial commodities would ceased to exist. Off late completed Ghazi Barota project investing billion of dollars started generating around 1,700 mgw power, which is clearly threaten by the back water of KBD near Attock Gorge.

Before Kalabagh is started the water flow reaching the coastal areas is gone down to a dead line, resulting in the sea water intrusion turning about 1.5 million acres of fertile land in 159 villages the districts of Thatta and Badin and Katcha area of Sindh, spread over 2 million acres, has been rendered barren, with consequent loss of productivity of food grains all types of crops and traditional oilseeds. Mangrove forests, which once grew on 700,000 acres, covers only 125,000 acres today, causing an eminent threat to the ports of Karachi and Bin Qasim.. Having found an alternative in port of Gwadar, the pro-dam lobby is conspicuously indifferent to the future of these two vital ports of Pakistan .

Funding from donor agencies is also a big question. As the project stand the most controversial and it is feared that no donor would be ready to invest their money in such project, the whole of investment burden would ultimately fall on the weak shoulder of Pakistan economy which is already reeling under the 35 billion US $ foreign debt.

Technical Perspective

The Skardu-Katzarah dam is the best option for the country and Basha dam is much better than Kalabagh, says the report of an expert committee constituted by the Ministry of Water & Power, government of Pakistan on construction of new water reservoirs headed by A.N.G Abbassi [2]. It is a detailed report contained more than 4000 pages in five (5) volumes but the last 18 pages written by the committee chairman and recently leaked to the press.

While constructing a dame four basic principles are kept in mind which include the maximum possible storage capacity, could give maximum benefits against the minimum cost, volume of power generation and lastly receive minim silting during the year, Silting can shorten or expand the live of dames and this is sometimes taken as primary reason to drop or pick the project.  Kalabagh on this scale of criteria is far below compare to Basha, or Katzara water reservoir. The pre feasibility survey shows that Katzara is more than six time large capacity to hold water, can produce 15,000 mgw power and due to the use of high rise mountain, with comparatively less investment and huge reservoir can be constructed.. Basha comes next to Katzara which can produce more power (more than 4000mgw compare to 2,400mgw of Kalabagh) less cost more benefits and above expand the life of Tarbela which would receive less silting after completion of Basha.

Location of the KBD is also technically not sound. As the backwater will come close to the areas close Nowshera and Swabi, a whole range of resettlement would be needed. Close to the proximity of Salt Range of Kohat and Karak the dissolution of salt into the water is a strong possibility which in turn can make the water unusable for irrigation purpose. This saline water can also affect the marine lives of various species. Agriculture would be the primary  victim as the saline water would destroy the soil under the irrigation system of this new dame.  During the last few years a number of oil and gas wells in operation in these two districts, particularly the Gorgora Gas Field in Karak district would be a big disaster for this region once the water level reaches to a certain level which the soil starts dissolving and exploration of oil and gas become impossible further. Most of these areas lack the portable water resources and the local inhabitants particularly the womenfolk use to get the water from far flung areas. To assist these local populations various NGOs and even the Government has dug deep tube well, however due to this new phenomena of water storage in close vicinity in Kalabagh this precious drinking water system will collapse.

A.G.N Qazi report about the technical aspects of various water reservoirs has so far not made public for unknown reasons. Some of the portions related to this report however, speak about the recommendations this report carries, which include a clear guideline for government water policy makers to discourage huge water reservoir and go for small size water storages. This new approach has been proposed in the backdrop of rising voices against the proposed big dames and also the resistance of environmentalists, economists and other relevant segment of civil society.  It is suggested by this committee to adopt realistic approach as far as Kalabagh is concerned. According to the committee there is hardly 5MAF surplus water available which is necessary to be flowing down the stream for maintaining the ecological environment on both sides of the Indus.

It is claimed that there is a surplus water which to some learnt planers amounting to 6MAF, to some more and to some less after deducting the required constant flow of water between 10 to 15MAF below Kotri Barrage in order to maintain the ecological biodiversity, marine life and above all push the sea water to protect the soil in the costal areas of Sindh. This very theme of surplus water is contested by Sindhis, who feel that there is no such surplus water available for which the Kalabagh dame is being planned. Sindhis have made a big issue out of it and provide their own sd of computation about actual flow of water below Kotri barrage to support their claim. In any case the flood water is not a regular phenomena and the surplus water is in doubt too after looking through the facts and figures presented by the Sindhi experts. In such a situation designing a dame like Kalabagh would be the waste of scarce resources and reason of bitterness between the federating units of this country.

In recent weeks the NWFP cabinet has been pushing hard for the Basha dam, primarily to take the heat off from the Kalabagh dam which they fear will entail large scale inundation and relocation of population in the province. The Basha dam is expected to prolong the lifespan of the heavily silted Tarbela dam reservoir. Its own life span is expected to be longer than Kalabagh as the sediment load at the site is less than half of that at Kalabagh. This dam is also tipped as cheaper at around $2 billion. It is expected to generate 3,360 MW of electricity against 24600 MW for Kalabagh and would have more storage capacity (7.1 MAF against 6.3 MAF for Kalabagh). Basha carry only one drawn back which is the inundating a 120 kilometer stretch of the Karakoram Highway.

With construction of Kalabagh dame Peshawar valley would be surrounded by the world largest dames in the area. Demographically this is a big threat to the city of Peshawar having the population of more than four million and with 5 million of inhabitants all around to have one water reservoir in the East (Munda Dame), one in the South Turbela, one in the South Warsak and another planned Kalabagh in the West. These are other than those small dames such as Tanda in Kohat, Malakand Water Product in Mardan, Pehur high Level Canal in Sawabi and other small size waster projects the provincial government has planned in the adjoining 7 tribal agencies. 

Political Perspective

Kalabagh dame is the only project in Pakistan, which has received wide range of publicity before it is actually being started. One of the oldest projects concaved by the planners sometimes in 1953 and to some reference before that period by the Brits and hanging around for decades due to various excuse the project on and off shows its face and when the storm against it become stronger, it disappears for sometimes. As mentioned this was one of the four sites proposed by the government of Pakistan to the world bank for financing (water project), however the World Bank chosen Mangla and then Turbela for reasons known to them and left this infamous project till date to suffer the hitting and cursing of all and sundry. General Zia ul haq dug it out again and put forth to the international financers for investment. It was the 80s of golden years and there was every possibility that the financer would have agreed to the proposal, not because of its viability or sound economic return but because of keeping the General smiling and serving one of its pit projects.

Due to its bad luck one of the senior most and trusted lieutenants of General Zia found it somehow harmful to the interest of its province. This was General Fazal Haq from Mardan looking after NWFP as Provincial Governor, who made a lot of noise against this project, Till then there was no rejection from the political forces of the Province with little effective opposition from Pushtoon bureaucrats working in the Water and Power Ministry belong to NWFP. It is also claimed that General Fazal Haq raised this issue to grind his own axe. Insiders believe that the President and Chief Martial law Administrator Gen Zia ul Haq wanted to remove General Fazal Haq from Governorship of NWFP and planed to bring in more docile and less irritating general to the post. Somehow General Fazal Haq sensed this imminent change and did every thing possible to create a big noise. Opposition to Kalabagh was one part of this whole strategy to keep the General in president house away from removing him.

Later during the civilian rules of both Banazair and Nawaz Sharif Kalabagh received severe drubbing at every forum from its opponents. Even Junejo government of late 80s was not prepared to take it as a serious issue because of bad image it had created for itself. First Benazir Bhutto government remained engaged in its own survival and could not be drawn to this issue through all these years she stayed at Prime Minister House.  Later Nawaz Sharif dared to mention this project in few of his speeches; however no serious undertaking was initiated.

During the 2nd stint of Benazir Bhutto government, political atmosphere got a bit matured and it was tried to bring the issue of Kalabagh dame into the parliament for debate, but most of the members were not found willing even to discuss it. The water and power ministry under Ghulam Mustafa Khar wanted to create a consensus at least amongst the cabinet members of Benazir Bhutto, however, the interior minister Nasirullah Khan Babar (He gave interview to the NEWS few days back) himself a Pushtoon from Peshawar valley discouraged him from doing so. Later the PPP under Benanzir Bhutto got confused how to react and could not formulate its policy viz a viz Kalabagh dame. Claiming to be having roots amongst the Pakistani masses from Karachi to Khyber (Peshawar) PPP did not want to loose the Punjabi vote bank and never came out clearly pro or against this project. In Sindh PPP always sided with Sindhi nationalist feelings but in Punjab advocated for creating a consensus amongst the federating units before going to built the Kalabagh dame. PML (N) oh the other hand was clearer, probably because of its strong vote bank concentrated in Punjab. Nawaz Sharif in his 2nd stint as Prime Minister announced the construction of the dame which invited a strong protest for the first time from Pushtoon political parties. A long march under the veteran politician Khan Abdul Wali Khan was taken out from Peshawar and reached Attock to register its protest against the said announcement of the Prime Minster. Here Wali Khan gave an emotional speech declaring they would bomb the Kalabagh dame once it is started. The rally was also addressed by Aftab Khan Sherpao, Afzal Khan Lala, Latif Afridi and few other prominent leaders of the Province.

Mutahida Majlis Amal (MMA) entered the political arena as political alliance of religio political parties, winning one full provincial government of NWFP with partial provincial government share of Balochistan in the 2002 elections. Before this they mainly concerned with the events happing in Afghanistan and its affects on Pakistani strategic interests. Individually these religious parties too lacked any clear policy about the KBD, however they also do not oppose such project in the larger national interests of Pakistan. Jamaat Ulma Islam under Maulana Fazal Rehman approach is closer to the left political parties who have sided with Sindhi Nationalist against the dame whenever a demonstration against was held, but in Punjab and NWFP have adopted conciliatory position. Jamaat Islami initially totally in favour of the dame but after getting into the power corridor have balanced its approach as the Jamaat in no mode to lose the Pushtoon vote in its traditional strong pockets of NWFP. Other components of the MMA have no significant standing in the political field, thus giving them no importance if they go against the dame or cry for its construction.

In Sindh the Kalabagh dame issue has created its own way of inviting people wrath. Once you speak the very name of Kalabagh and the heads around you would turn towards you in a such way that you would find it difficult to speak it again. The heirs of Pakistan political movement in India and today the senior and junior level cadre of Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) feel it impossible to go against the commonly held opinion against the Kalabagh dame in Sindh. Contrary to the policy of ruling Muslim League and being a junior coalition partner in the present setup MQM has threaten to quite the government and ministries but won't support them for construction of Kalabagh dame. Their flat refusal to the President General Pervaiz Musharraf during his recent visit to Karachi and other cities of Sindh surprised many and created soft corners in the hearts of interior Sindhis.  Off late (The NEWS on 23rd Dec 2005) Pir Pagara spiritual leader of Hur  has come in open to support the President on  KBD project. He not only termed it in the interest of his decuples which are called Hurs but for other masses as well in Sindh. To judge his political maturity one can see his utterance against the elected provincial assembly which he says is a burden over the resources of the Province and wanted its pack up in the same statement.

Balochistan has no immediate concern with this issue, but to keep the pressure mounting on what the called Punjabi politicians they have joined forces with Sindhis and Pushtoon along with the token presence of Seraiki politician under the political alliance of Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement PONM. The said alliance is the amalgamation of more than 2 dozens political parties from mainly the three provinces of NWFP, Balochistan, Sindh and representation of disgruntled elements of Seraiki belt of Punjab. Last November (in 2004) they called for wheel jam strike against the Kalabagh, which brought most of the businesses to a standstill, particularly in Balochistan, Interior Sindh and most Parts of the NWFP.

Off late President General Pervez Musharraf government took this issue once again, probably to finish it once and for all, inviting the attention of Pakistani people towards the impeding catastrophic the planners see in the absence of any viable water project to take care of rising water demands of the country in near future. He himself went to the extent of providing any personal assurance to the Sindhis during his meeting with the intelligentsia and political leaders, however, most of the appeals went above their heads. Opposition lawmakers in the National Assembly on Tuesday (20th December 2005) severely criticized President Pervez Musharraf statement that resolutions adopted by three provincial assemblies were no hurdle to construction of the Kalabagh dam, while treasury members from Punjab supported the project and accused the opposition of politicizing the issue unnecessarily.  The opposition (Ms Naheed Khan of the PPP) also hit out at the president's remark that any government opposing the project would be toppled by Punjab and that his government would remain in power till completion of the KBD.  Most of the Law Makers in both the Houses of Parliament term these announcement similar to those during 1953 where Bengali was not accepted as the only National Language, thus sowing the seed of secession which materialized just 18 years later in 1971.

Environmental Perspective

The Million Development Goals (MDGs) - a set of environmental and development targets, prioritized by the UN's Millennium Summit in September 2000, include commitment to improve water security and ensure environmental sustainability. MDGs were based on Agenda 21, adopted by more than 178 governments at the Earth Summit at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992. Chapter 13 of documents says: " Mountain environments are essential to the survival of the global ecosystem. Mountains are highly vulnerable to human and natural ecological imbalance. are the areas most sensitive to all climatic changes in the atmosphere...."

It is said that the dames had an adverse social and environmental impact on their surroundings. For example, dams are credited with displacing anywhere between 40 to 80 million people in different parts of the world.  The World Commission on Dams (WCD) has recommended transparent and Democratic decision making about large dam projects. The WCD asserts alternatives to dams exist and there is a need to define the objective clearly and explore alternatives.

Looking into the above define goals and importance of maintaining the echo balance in Pakistan, it is essential to confirm that these mega projects, keeping in view the long terms affects, would not negatively affect the environments of the given area/region before launching the physical work. There are a number of environmental hazards the Kalabagh Dame would cause and these briefly discussed together below.

Environmental affects in Sindh

Sindh would be facing various types of calamities once the first stone of this dame is place in its foundation. These ranges from endangering marine life to the social displacement of huge population, losing of fertile soil near the shore of Arabian Sea and above all the scarcity of drinking water which may lead to chase all around. Following are major implications to assess the imminent catastrophe, Sindhis would face:

Soil Erosion and death of Mangrove forest: Below Kotri barrage it is not yet clear how much water is needed to be allowed to flow. Experts who advocate the construction of the Kalabagh dame and believe Pakistan has surpluses water and according to their assessment around 10 MAF water (according to 1991 accord) would be enough to sustain the marine life and protect the mangrove forest. The mangrove forest covered more than 2 million squire Km areas but due to the slow down of water releases for this purpose most parts of this forest has destroyed. After the construction of Kalabagh this water availability is feared would further decreased and whatever left of would be totally vanished, which would result in the departure of precious species of local marine life. In this mangrove forest some of the unique fish are found particularly Indus Blind Dolphin and Pala fish. Some of these fish find the roots of the mangrove trees below the water surface safe hatching pockets and also defend themselves against big fish. Birds of some distinguish species are also found in the mangrove forest and season birds arrive here from the central Asia and other cold region and live here for few weeks. Obliteration of mangrove forest in Katcha areas because of low level of water and flood the natural habitat for wildlife and migratory birds would be no more available. The delta is an important flyover for migratory birds. During the winter, millions of waterfowl, including pelicans and flamingos, stop over in the delta for feeding and breeding.

In Katcha area where more than 100,00 population is concentrated and whose sole sources of income is fishing, grazing goats and sheep are finding it difficult to sustain their lives any more due to the decrease of Indus water and stoppage of flood water which usually carry fertilize material to their fields. Crime rate has been increased and most of the Katcha area now provides sanctuaries to the notorious criminals and highwaymen.

Recently government of Sindh formed a team of experts to determine the damages level the local horticultural species faced due to various reasons.  The study findings were alarming in the seven districts from Gotkci to Hyderabad where a total of 20,937 trees very badly damaged. Majority of these damages were occurred due to the low water flow in Indus, which resulted first in the drying of these trees and finally totally dying. The loss of Shisham trees was 64%, Mango trees 25%, and Babul and other trees 11%. According to the study, water shortage was the major cause for the loss of natural habitat. The deforestation followed by soil degradation, salinity, and erosion will then lead to desertification rendering once fertile lands to barren deserts.

Deforestation & Desertification: forests on both sides of the River Indus are threatened due to reduced flow in the Indus, as the river water is the only source of regeneration and growth of these forests. Due to upstream water diversion and storage the intensity of floods has been adversely affected. Hardly 20% of the total area is flooded. Out of 600,000 acres forest, an area of about 37,500 to 42,292 acres was regenerated in the years 1995-98.

Salt Water Intrusion: The Indus water discharges to the sea pushing the saline water back to the sea and does not let it break in too much into the surface. Due to the low water discharge into the sea salt water intrusion has been significantly increased. With the current water shortage the situation is alarming. The salt-water intrusion tears down water supplies and people have no other option but to drink brackish water thus exposed to various diseases. On the top of it, the sea water also renders fertile agricultural lands useless, resulting in loss of jobs and economic devastation. Hundreds of villages in the Badin and Thatta districts have been deserted and people have been forced to migrate to some other areas.

Indus Water Pollution: Due to the reduced water flow in Indus, its natural assimilative capacity diminishes. It receives raw sewage from various sources mainly big cities in the form of untreated industrial wastewater, and irrigation returns from the communities spread along the riverbanks. With population growth and reduced water flows, to keep Indus water far from pollution is next to impossible task. Levels of oxygen deplete organic contaminants from sewage, toxic compounds from industrial discharges, and pesticides from irrigation returns are increasing in the Indus.. Water borne diseases are on the rise and many fish and other aquatic species have declined in number and diversity. If the situation is not immediately checked further water degradation will not be controllable and its impacts on the aquatic life, public health, and other uses of water will be very significant.

Lakes and Wetlands in Danger: A number of well know lacks are making the soil of Sindh spotted with beautiful natural habitable for wildlife. These include Manchar, Kinjhar, Haleji, Hadero, Chotiari and most of these lacks get water from Indus. During 2001, the country designated eight new wetlands of international importance, bringing the total number to 16. Six of these, namely Keenjhar Lake, Drigh Lake, Haleji Lake, Indus Dolphin Reserve, Jubho Lagoon, Nurri Lagoon are in Sindh. The Haleji Lake has also been declared as the bird sanctuary. These lakes and wetlands are now face severe threat from the upper Indus riparian as the level of flow in Indus going down to minimum every passing year.

Biodiversity at Risk: Pakistan is one of the signatories to Rio Declaration. The Principle No. 4 of this declaration proclaims that ``In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.''  We have seen that our government is not serous to implement that part of the environment protection during planning for sustainable development and totally fail in its commitments of  declaration pertaining to conservation of biodiversity, sustainable development, and environmental protection.

Cultural Diversity Threatened: Mohanas are water folks comprising many small and big tribes living near water or in the boats floating on the surface of water from birth to death. Their population has not been recorded but it is believed to be couple of million souls, earring their livelihood from Indus water.  Due to the recent water shortage, the lives of these folks have been enormously disturbed, forcing them to move away from and out of water and try to find alternative means of livelihood for themselves. It has been estimated that about 2.0 million Mohanas have been affected due to water shortage throughout Sindh. It is not only devastating for these folks to adjust to a new way of life or location but also a great loss to the cultural diversity that Sindh has been rightly proud of for thousands of years.

Environmental affects in NWFP

According to the WAPDA report, which is again contested by the experts by known experts the said the dam would affect more people in the NWFP than those mentioned by the president. "In the 2001-2002 WAPDA report, it is written on page 39 that the Kalabagh dam would affect 109,783 people in the NWFP and 64,884 in the Punjab. How it is so small number of population in NWFP when the all the villages on both side of river Kabul would be inundated by the back water of Kalabagh.  We have a bitter experience of displaced people from former state of Amb which came under the water of Turbela and they are still not being paid the compensation after 30 long years.

Back water of Kalabagh dame, once it is built would threaten eco-system in the Indus, Kabul and doaba of Charsadda region close to Peshawar. Reverse flow of Kabul river and its rising level of water,  particularly during flood season would put the lives of million of human populace endanger. This would impede every developmental activity and the masses have to live in perpetual fear of drowning in waters they have not control over.

Lately, WAPDA has revised the designs of KBD and has decided to reduce the reservoir elevation to 915-ft above MSL in July 1986. it was modified to soothe the fears of affectiees from NWFP that with the reduced height back water of KBD lack would not be that much harmful, forgetting that this reduction in height would bring down the storage capacity and power generation too. Whereas, the validity of WAPDA's statement of a mere 10-ft reduction in reservoir height to solve all the problems is questionable and worth detailed investigation, the people of NWFP doubt the predictions of WAPDA experts due to their previously ill-conceived designs of KBD, and hold strong apprehensions against the hidden objectives of the project.

Recommendations and Suggestions

The statement of our president that opposing the KBD means loosing the power and government as without the support of Punjab it is not possible to rule even for a day (reference to the NEWS on 20th December 2005). Pushing the KBD so hard to get it down the throats of Sindh and NWFP, it is expected that the Government would allow the project to be discussed briefly and then present for vote in the Parliament. Passing in the National Assembly is not a big deal as the clear majority of member from Punjab, but Senate would not be an easy place to get it through. Again here it is worth mentioning that a serious question of power by these institutions would open the Pandora box.  This, the government believes, will nullify the effect, relevance and force of the resolutions passed by the assemblies of the Sindh, Balochistan and North West Frontier Province (NWFP) against the project some time back.

It is also on the cards to make it an agenda item of any forthcoming meeting of  meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) to discuss it and then give green signal for starting the construction of the Kalabagh dam. At the same time it is also expected that to minimize the negative affects the ratio of Centre and Provinces in the impending NFC from the divisible pool would be made 40(Centre) and 60(Provinces), thus providing more resources to the provinces to plan for their own developmental activities. Through this new arrangement this is also strongly believed that the share of the Sindh and NWFP would be slightly increased to compensate them for their approval for KBD. Willingness on the part of JUI a major component of MMA will allow Chief Minister NWFP Mr. Akhram Khan Durrani and Opposition Leader Maulana Fazal Rehman to participant in the next NSC meeting, ostensibly conveying the message for such an arrangement.

Opposing a project like KBD for the sack of opposition is the sign of ill mentality. If one is not prepare to support it and also believes that there is a need to plan for the future needs  of water in the country, one must come up with some tangible  alternatives. Here are a couple of alternatives, one should read seriously.

Recently the Technical committee under A.G.N Qazi has clearly recommended that Basha is much better side than Kalabagh in many ways. Similarly in long run the best solution for water resources development is to build the 35-MAF Katzarah Dam near Partab bridge about 18 km downstream of Skardu on the Indus. It will produce 15,000 MW of power and will have a life of more than 1000 years. Katzarah will also not submerge the Karakoram highway and its most important aspect is that it will serve as a Watershed Management project by stopping the sediment erosion in Skardu valley; the reduced silt flow in the Indus will prolong the life of all storage facilities downstream, particularly Turbela and later Basha. Moreover, if the Russians or the Chinese if given the task to prepare its pre-feasibility and detailed design, it can be executed in less than seven years. Once it is full, the Skardu dam with its 35 MAF reservoir will take care of the country's water needs for many years to come.

Another better option would be to build Basha dame. In the presence of Basha site, it would be unwise to opt for any other location for such a huge investment in terms of time and resources. As seen above, Basha has excelled KBD in many ways, such as water storage capacity, comparatively lesser negative affects i.e displacement of populace, non existence of public resistance against its construction and above all environmentally sustainable and economically viable project. The Kalabagh dam was favoured, so long as no other site was available. That situation has changed because Basha dam appears decidedly better than Kalabagh:

Most of the time we have had a big noise of water theft charges against each other. Experts have calculated the losses of water to the tune of 35MAF, which is almost 6 times more than what the KBD can store for us. This loss is real one and it is not because of alleged theft but due to the faulty distribution system of irrigation, outdated canals, sub canals, evaporation, and above all the seepage in this system take the toll of what is supposed to reach the far ends of our irrigation system. In order to have sufficient water for irrigation use we need to improve the quality of our irrigation system, upgrade the clay made water courses to those of concrete one, line up the small distributaries and make it a regular feature of de-silting the canals on permanent basis. Army should not be bothered to spare their trained human resources for de-silting the canals but a separate professional force be established.  Obviously we can not increase whatever the water resources are available, but at least we can reduce the losses of 35MAF of water with very little investment (in comparison of KBD).

This would be seen by some of my readers not a better preposition ethically, however to break down the present strengths of rising storm created jointly by the Sindhis and Pushtoon against the KBD, it is possible to redrawn some of the provincial bounders of NWFP and Punjab, prevailed before the commencement of one Unit during the 1960s. Kalabagh is a predominantly Pushtoon (Khattak and Niazi tribes) areas, western parts of Mianwali used to be Bannu Tehsil before the One unit arrangements. After the One Unit (i.e the whole of western Parts of Pakistan) dismantlement Miawali was detached from Bannu (NWFP) and made part of Punjab. It can be used an option now before the Pushtoon leaderships if they take this area back provided they agree to the construction of KBD. Once they agree to this new arrangements of taking back the land once part of NWFP along with their willingness to end their opposition to KBD, half of the job would be completed. In other words Punjab would be taken off the hook and a new element of ownership will appear on the horizon.

Some of the proponents of Kalabagh cite the increasing demand for power in Pakistan, without which no substantial industrial development could be possible. Agreed. Cheap per unit production of power is the most attractive feature of any dame. In the case of KBD this power generation would be at the higher cost of losses in other areas of our economy. If we believe that Kalabagh is planned only a power generation project (as there is no left or right canal allowed for irrigation in the latest design and planned production of 3,600MGW max), then what have stopped us from exploring other means of lesser hazardous and cheaper power generation sources. We know that a huge amount of coal is still deep buried in the deserts of Sindh and that billion of tones wealth is once mined and used for power production would be witness to a significant difference.

Other than this huge of wealth of coal in the belly of earth, we can also use the winder base power generation project in the costal areas of Sindh and Balochistan, which would pose not environmental threat neither destabilize the local ecosystem or economy.

Provincial department of NWFP (SHYDO) has carried out surveys on various locations in the northern parts of NWFP few years back and have prepared feasibility reports of possible power generation using the natural falls on various rivers. These power generation projects would not disturb the existing ecosystem and flora and fauna as these would be built on the flow of river. It is estimated that through these medium and small size power generation projects, the country would be provided around 50,000 MGW of power with spending far less foreign and local resources. These small and medium size power projects would generate thousand of local employment, and would help to control floods in monsoon season, stop erosion of fertile lands close to these rivers and improve the communication system.

The title of a recent study "Turbela Dam Sedimentation Management", carried out by TAMS-Wallingford (March 1998) is self-explanatory. It shows that a de-silted Turbela would yield the same irrigation benefits as Kalabagh, but at one-seventh the cost in net present value terms. Additionally, even if a thermal power plant of equivalent capacity to Kalabagh were constructed, the cost would still be lower by one-third. The study states that, "replacement of [irrigation and energy] benefits by constructing a new dam and reservoir down stream is feasible, but will be expensive, environmentally damaging and socially harmful. One alternative option is to construct new outlets at the Turbela Dam that will enable sediment to be flushed from the reservoir."

Notes

Image Credits: Geo Mianwali, Olivier Matthys

1. The world 3rd Largest multi purpose reservoir dam
2. The Dawn on 23rd Dec 2005 By Khaleeq Kiani

Bibliography

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   Ibid., Kalabagh dam: the other view, Dawn, 31st July 2000
8. ENGR. AKRAM KHAN., Kalabagh Dam needs review
9. ERIK ECKHOLM., A Province Is Dying of Thirst, and Cries Robbery, 17 March 2003
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11. ALY ERCELAWN & OMAR ASGHAR KHAN., Kalabagh: Need for Informed Debate
12. F. H. MUGHAL., Indus water pollution
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14. JAVED QAZI., History, Logic, Law And Politics Of Water And Indus, Ibrat, 22nd May 2003
15. ALTAF A. MEMON (Phd.)., An Overview of the History & Impacts of the Water Issue in Pakistan
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17. FARRUKH SOHAIL GOINDI., Water Crisis In Pakistan
18. Lt. Col (R) RAEES KHAN AFRIDI., Unacceptability of the Dam
19. ANWAR PIRZADA., Is agriculture more important than ecology? 18 October 2003
    Ibid., Unjust Water Distribution
    Ibid., Sindh Punjab mistrust has long History, Interview with H.H. Panwar, Star, Vol XXXV No 47, Sat. 24 February 2001
20. AZIZ NAREJO., Water crisis: some misconceptions, Corpus Christi, Texas, USA
    Ibid., Mega water projects and Sindh
21. MANZOOR CHANDIO., Fallacies about dams, Karachi
22. RASHID ZIA QURESHI., Sad day dawns on Sindh: Sindhis start chopping their orchards!, Star, Karachi Report
23. Water Wars: Pakistani Provinces Clash Over Mega Dam, One World, South Asia, Down stream Kotri: Constitutional position By Zulfiqar Halepoto
24. M. ISMAIL KHAN., A dam no one wants, The News
    Ibid., Avoiding the highway to death., The News
25. MUHAMMAD NAJEEB., Barrage of argument - The dispute between Punjab and Sindh over the distribution of river water is as old as the modern irrigation system in the region, Political Economy, 4th December 2005, The News
26. MUHAMMAD ALI., Can there be better sharing of the Indus waters? Daily Times, Lahore
27. Dr. RAJAB ALI MEMON., Conflict on water sharing & storage
28. MAHMOOD HASAN KHAN., Dam - Questions to Answer, Dawn, 24th December 2005
29. SHAFQAT MAHMOOD., Dangerous collision of national interests., The News, 23rd December 2005
30. NAJMA SADEQUE., Ecological and human cost of dams
31. AMNA NASIR MALIK JAMAL., Water woes
32. MUHAMMAD MESBAHI., Water Wars., 25 November 2004
33. ALA-UD DIN MASOOD., Water sharing - Issue of Baghliar Dam needs to be resolved quickly
34. SYED MUHAMMAD ALI., Water management in South Asia, Daily Times, Lahore
    Ibid., Water management and human rights, Daily Times, Lahore
    Ibid., Water development: a national security issue, Daily Times, Lahore
35. AYAZ AMIR., Spare us this confusion, Daily Dawn
36. KHALEEQ KIANI., Skardu-Katzarah dam best option: report, Dawn, 23rd December 2005
37. Engr. FATEHULLAH KHAN., KBD - Geology and geotechnical issues

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